What a coincidence. I was just the other day checking some old intel
files and found a player list I saved off the Olympia site from turn
69.
On a whim I ran a comparison with the list on turn 127.
Of the 304 factions present on turn 69 there are now 164 still
playing. to put it another way 140 of the factions present on turn 69
have dropped.
Now some things to note.
This was before Rich did his big purge of non-active factions so a
lot of those 140 were people who took the freebie turns and then
never continued. From the figures I worked out in an earlier post
about inactive factions I would estimate 100 of those 140 could be
attributed to tryouts.
Many of the new additions since 69 I recognise as active and what I
would term medium-term players who are active in their areas.
Many of these new additions are now significant powers in their
regions. Examples are Egoroth and Southmarche. This refutes the lack
of land problem. The real problem there as I have said before is that
the newbies are intimidated but the rhetoric and perceived power of
the existing nations. When your full map of land known consists of
five provinces the world can seem a big and scary place.
There is always going to be a short term churn rate as people try it
out and decide it is not for them due to time, taste, whatever. I
estimate it at about 40 factions at any one time.
There has been significant attrition in long term players but this
has mostly been due to RL problems in my experience. There have been
some factions decimated to the point of giving up but these are very
few as far as I know.
I can't say for sure but it seems all of the major alliances have
lost a few major members along the way. The Lords membership seems to
have peaked and is in decline all though they seem to be picking up
some new members. The interesting thing here is many of these newer
members are not geographically near the core group so it will be
intersting to see if their co-ordination suffers at all.
PLATO seems to be holding up after the loss of Captain Arr to RL
having gained some of the remanants of the Harn Confederacy
The Muskateers have lost a few members notably Silas the Traitor who
dropped shortly after. (But he is coming back)
TIB's has had a leadership change (civil war in the offing?? I
wish:-) ) but seems stable. Smotheringly stable if you ask me but no
one ever does.
Bandits have had a leadership change
I think I'm drifting off the subject. Just don;t want to do my
orders.
> I'm interested to know how the game is working out.
>
> I'd be willing to hazard that there is a very high rate of dropouts among
> new players and a low one among long-standing players. Obviously the
> long-term players have considerable investment in the game so dropping out
> is less likely, nothing sinister there. However, I also feel that new
> players drop out because :
>
> 1. They are intimidated by the size of the existing factions which could
> wipe them out on a whim.
correct but there is no reason to do so and most nations are busy
with there own business.
> 2. There appears to be little or no new land an independant can call home.
Tough. You want it either earn it off an existing nation or take it
by force. (The Brotherhood have a special rate for newbies) It can be
done.
> 3. Its too easy to lose vital parts of a small faction to crossfire and fog
> of war between squabbling giant factions.
All the early starters lost nobles to monsters, wasted time
exploring, researching, building, etc. A new arrival with a bit of
diplomacy can be showered in resources, troops, have towers and
scrolls provided. I remember when I had to ride for months to meet
a guy to buy some centaurs because there were no others around. I
was in Harn and he was in Greyfell and we just blindly set out in to
the unknown to try and meet. I can't tell you how many swamps I fell
in. Now you can get an almost complete Provinia map given to you with
many hidden locations just for showing interest in joining an
alliance.
I have seen new arrivals drop because they were bombarded with too
many offers to join and felt too pressured.
> 4. There are few opportunities to compete with equal-sized factions.
Depends where you are and what you call competing. If you mean
slugging it out with troops then you are right because no sane ruler
would allow it in their teritory. You have to fit in with the local
power structure, join it, over throw it or move on. Seems like plenty
of options to me.
> 5. It seems unlikely that a new faction will ever reach the power of the
> existing giant factions.
Wrong. By using the built up resources of the world your faction can
be much more powerful after 20 turns than any of the original
starting factions were after 20. Power?? What is power?? Maddog with
two nobles managed to terrorise the Harn area for two years killing
over 15 nobles and upsetting the plans of two nations (and the BoRG).
Is power gold, men, mages, land what??
Having more noble points usually means more nobles and/or powerful
mages. More nobles just means you can do more things. If you have a
nation half of your nobles at least are just maintaining your
infrastructure. A smaller faction with no trade routes, garrisons,
armies, etc to support can act more decisively and efficently.
> These reasons are all opinion and can no doubt be refuted at length but if
> that is the impression new players get then high-drop out rates will result
> among new players. I don't know if this matters or if anyone really cares
> but I wanted to voice my opinion.
I agree this is a perception problem but it is also a new arrival
initiative problem. I would love to be starting now. So many more
interesting opportunities land the stake out a land claim, build the
castle and decide which alliance to join.
With a bit of diplomacy you can easily travel the world and 'explore'
Olympia without having to visit almost every province like in the old
days. Just contact the locals and find out the sights of interest.
Most alliances are friendly (well in their own funny way ) and many
people have put considerable time and effort into their web sites to
overcome these things. I do think we need less tips on rules and a
bit more current affairs so to speak. The Times is a dull read and
the list is often a private flame war.
Ok Ok I'll quit stalling and do my orders. Boy a guy could feel
unappreciated around here
Mordekai
Marshal
Brotherhood of the Red God