RE: Castles and Research and Stuff
Rodgers, Robert (rrodgers@unex.ucla.edu)
Wed, 11 Jun 1997 11:16:05 -0700
> >I doubt there are problems in the code, but you never know. Are
> >these statistical apparitions normal? If someone gets 17 failures
> >in a row over N turns in a game with ~200 players, each on average
> >executing Y of the same command on average per turn, over the course
> >of ~150 turns, does that indicate there is likely a problem with
> >the code? Or would it be unusual if someone _hadn't_ seen a string
> >of 17 failures?
>
> >Beats me, the last stats class I took was 11 years ago.
>
> The chance of 17 straight misses on a research order--a 75% failure
> rate--is about .75%. To miss 11 times is about 4%. If either of
> these events HADN'T occured it would be amazing.
>
> Rob
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